India will be able to accelerate its growth rate to 9-9.5% over 2013-15, even as China will drop down to a more sedate 9% by 2012 and to 8% by 2015, reports Morgan Stanley, the globally renowned Financial Services Firm.
Of the many claims in this forecast is that India will significantly raise its expenditure on infrastructure and in plant and machinery. Infrastructure expenditure has gone up from 5.4% of GDP in 2005 to 7.5% in 2009 and is poised to go up to 8% of GDP in 2010. Over 2012-17, the forecast is that India’s infrastructure spend would be $1 trillion as compared with $530 million over the previous five-year period.
Another forecast is on the quantity and quality of the young people coming into the workforce. While India will be the largest contributor to the world’s workforce — all of 136 million people — over the next 10 years (fully a quarter of the entire world’s additional workforce), China will add just 23 millions.
It would be interesting to cite that the government’s chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu has been forecasting such a development as well, of late.